David Cameron and Syria

I knew it was love when he said, "We believe that the use of chemical weapons is sanctioned and ordered by the Assad regime."

David Cameron and his foreign secretary, William Hague, have had a different relationship with Syria and the opposition for several months now. It was David Cameron who lobbied with the help of France for a compromise deal in the EU to lift the arms embargo to Syria at the end of May. This was in hope that the moderate sections of the Syrian Opposition can see weapons in the near future, and that point became one of the main issues of contention at the G8 summit just one month later.

In the meantime the atmosphere of Syria had changed. The Syrian Opposition, who've previously had mild success, had been turned on its heels and became desperate. The Syrian Government recommitted to air strikes, relied on its advantage in heavy weaponry, and used Hezbollah fighters to cut rebel supply lines. To have a fighting chance, some parts of the Syrian Opposition made use of suicide bombers. This caused tensions within Syria itself, as those who made use of suicide bombers were more prone to Islamist extremism or to be jihadist. On June 13^th, it was French analyst that had reported the Syrian Government had used Sarin gas in attacks on rebel forces.

Holding Hands? Or Arms…?

It became increasingly obvious that friends of the Assad government (mainly Russia, Iran and China) were giving advanced arms to government forces, and with the new found success Bashar al-Assad walked away from peace negotiations. On the other side, there is no such consistent support from large governments, and most arms the opposition can obtain are smuggled from surrounding the states of Iraq, Turkey, and Jordan. At the G8 summit David Cameron made his opinion clear that there should be advanced arms sent to the pro-democratic forces, however he was rebuked by Vladmir Putin and neither country came to an agreement other than to commit to an end to the violence in Syria.

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned

Now David Cameron is fighting two sides. With 100,000 Syrians killed in the fighting already and over 1 million refugees, Syria rebels are starting to lose hope and their positions. The head of the Free Syrian Army General Salim Idris stated on July 15^th "I have not had the opportunity to ask David Cameron personally if he will leave us alone to be killed. On behalf of all the Syrians, thank you very much." Then, in Parliament and the UK public there is no appetite for war or direct in Syria, and forcing the issue could create massive backlash of of an election where the conservative party aims to win a clear majority in order to quickly forget about the coalition years. Even with advanced arms there is no clear indication that the rebels could win or finish negotiations within the 2 years before the next election, and Cameron has already been told by MPs they demand a House of Commons vote before arms are sent. Anything Cameron does or does not do ends up with him being dumped in criticism.

A Valentine’s Day gift

As of July 16^th the UK announced equipping the Syrian opposition with £650,000 worth of special protective equipment against chemical and biological attacks. Although officially called a “gift due to special urgency,” this is the first step beyond universally supported humanitarian aid. This could either be a situation of “I can’t afford a diamond ring,” or could be the test for beginning discussions of advanced support.

Either way, the political love test says: Heating Up