UK and EU

The Relationship?

The UK and EU (then known as the EEC) married in January of 1973 under the Conservative government with Ted Heath. However it was a strange situation from the start, the UK and EU kept their personal bank accounts separate (the UK is still not a member of the Eurozone) but made their vows to share the Common Agricultural Policy and access to common markets. The first hiccup came with the United Kingdom referendum of 1975 called by the Labour party, asking “Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?” But the UK answered in approval of 67% Yes to 33% No. From then on the UK and EU have predominately looked like a life long partnership, but it hasn't always been easy.

The current tiff: a Brexit?!?

In January of 2013 David Cameron called for a 2017 Referendum on whether or not the United Kingdom will remain in the EU, if the conservative party is elected. This isn't the first time, as there have been threats of a referendum in 1997 by the Referendum party headed Sir James Goldsmith. However he was unable to find enough support because the party was seen as a single issue party in the election and did not win a seat in the House of Commons. Nigel Farage is the leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), founded in 1993 and is also on the mission to separate the United Kingdom from EU. UKIP slowly been gaining support throughout the UK by winning more seats in the European parliament and Farage has also been trying to avoid Goldsmith's pitfalls by having stances on other issues such as same-sex marriage, renewable energy, and immigration.

Signing the divorce papers?

Nigel Farage will most likely do better in the European parliament elections, and continue to put pressure by publicizing Euroscepticism. However, Cameron has learned from history too and a focus on EU issues has been cited as a cause why the Conservative party lost in 2001. Cameron pushed the issue two years past the election, which allows him to work on winning the majority in the election and at the same time hurts Farage's chances of keeping the issue relevant if he fails to win a seat in the House of Commons. This scenario is likely due to dropping UKIP interest with the Guardian poll from 7/15/2013 showing the party only winning 10% of the vote. The trouble is that the UK people consistently are polling more to leave than to stay, the last 5 yougov polls have 43%-50% of the vote saying to leave. The rest of the EU, save for France, is polling the opposite. A French daily newspaper named Le Parisien found 52% in favor of UK leaving the EU but polls in Germany, Denmark and Ireland wanted the UK to stay. Leaders on both sides have showed more interest in the UK staying, with David Cameron himself proposing to attempt negotiations on a 'new deal' between the EU and UK.

How do we split the stuff?

The common market is estimated by the UK government to bring $45 billion into the UK economy, and it's not promised that deals can be made to keep UK access the same. Not to mention immigration agreements, the oceans, etc. More scenarios are also possible; What if Labour wins? What if the EU doesn't allow the UK to leave? Nothing is for certain.

Political Love Tester: At closest this referendum is 4 years away, and in the meantime the EU and UK are still together and will enjoy their benefits. So, for now, It's all talk.